Now that the Super Rugby Pacific season has passed the halfway point, it seemed like as good a time as any to apply the same technique to scoring from Rounds 1–8 — particularly given how close the games have been overall this season.

For the uninitiated, these curves show the average number of points a team is ahead or behind (their points differential) at every minute of a match. To do this, we look at all the games a team has played. Every time a team or their opponent scores1, we update the average score differential for that point in time. Put another way: imagine overlaying every match’s scoring worm and averaging them together.

It’s not a perfect analysis. One or two blowouts can skew the results (see the Hurricanes’ second-half demolition of the Waratahs), and while every match is weighted equally, the final scoreline doesn’t always tell the full story. But these curves help visualise (and often confirm) the patterns and narratives we feel as fans. And yes, it turns out the Crusaders really do finish strong.

Below is my quick interpretation of how I read this for each team. Feel free to agree, disagree, or throw your own hot take into the mix.

ACT Brumbies

The Brumbies are just a solid team. Their average point differential stays mostly within a tight range early, and they keep their composure in the final 20 minutes of games. On an individual game level, we can see they’re not blowing teams out, but they’re rarely out of contention either. The average smooths over some back-and-forth tussles, but the key trend holds: the Brums finish stronger than they start. That steady late-game rise isn’t fluke—it’s consistency, game management, and bench impact doing their job. No wild swings. Just pressure applied until the other side breaks.

Blues

The Blues are a bit of a slow burn—but not in a good way (especially for a defending champion). They tend to start off okay, holding their own through the first half and often sitting in positive or neutral territory. But after halftime, the bottom starts to fall out. Their average point differential steadily declines all the way to the final whistle. And when you look at the individual games, it’s not just one or two blowouts dragging them down—it’s a clear pattern of second-half fade-outs. They just haven’t figured out how to close games out.

Chiefs

The Chiefs feel like a team that does their best work before the break. Their average point differential shoots up in the first 30 minutes as they pile on early scoreboard pressure. But what’s interesting is that they don’t necessarily keep that momentum going. The second half flattens out—while they’re rarely in trouble, they’re also not putting teams away. They hit hard early and then shift into game management mode. If you’re not switched on in the first half, the Chiefs will make you pay. They’re top of the table for a reason.

Crusaders

I guess the death of the Crusaders was greatly exaggerated. They don’t explode out of the gate, and things stay pretty even early on, but once the second half kicks off, they go to work. The average differential climbs steadily from around the 50-minute mark, and by full-time they’ve usually built a lead. The individual worms show the same thing: they let the game unfold, keep it close, and then slowly crush you in the final 20 (The JOC effect?). Like the Crusaders of old, they just find a way to win.

Fijian Drua

The Drua are chaos merchants, and their curve reflects it. Their average point differential tanks in the opening 20 minutes, which is a shame—because they often claw their way back into games. But the damage is usually done by then. The individual worms show just how early and how often they concede points. We all know you can never count the Drua out, but they make it bloody hard on themselves by spotting the opposition a head start. Right now, it feels like they’re spending too much time playing catch-up.

Highlanders

What’s the nicest thing we can say about the Highlanders right now? How about this: they’re quietly competitive through the middle third of matches. Unfortunately, it’s the opening and closing phases where things fall apart. There’s a dip in the first 15–20 minutes, a bit of a recovery, and then a steady decline again after the 60-minute mark. They’re in the fight for long stretches, but struggle to land the final punch. The last 10 minutes of games have been particularly costly.

Hurricanes

The Canes are just... solid. Their average point differential doesn’t move wildly in either direction—it just stays calmly above zero for most of the match. The individual worms back it up too. There’s a quiet confidence in how they play: never too far ahead, never too far behind, but more often than not, doing just enough. What really stands out is how often they win the final 10 minutes. It’s not a surge—it’s just steady, suffocating pressure that turns close games into wins.

Moana Pasifika

Moana Pasifika are the kings of the near-comeback. They start slow—very slow—and usually find themselves down early. But then they rally. From around the 50-minute mark, their average point differential rises sharply, and they often flip momentum in that first 20 minutes after halftime. The problem? They can’t quite hold it. Just as things are turning their way, they often let it slip again in the final 10 minutes. If they can plug those early and late leaks, they should keep climbing the table as finals approach.

NSW Waratahs

Cliché time! The Tahs are a classic case of two halves. The first half is fine—nothing dramatic, but they’re in the game. The second half? Not so much. From around the 50-minute mark, the decline in differential is sharp and sustained. The average line crashes, and the game-by-game breakdown backs it up with multiple capitulations in the final 20 minutes. They’re not necessarily poor starters, but they’re definitely poor finishers.

Queensland Reds

The Reds are hard to build a narrative around because they don’t really have wild swings. Their average differential hovers close to neutral for most of the match, but there’s a gentle, consistent upward trend as the game goes on. They’re rarely dominant, but rarely out of it either. This is a team that builds its advantage slowly—grinding rather than exploding. It might not be the most exciting curve, but it’s the mark of a team that wears you down over time. Right now, they’re clearly Australia’s top side.

Western Force

The Force hang in there. Their average point differential in the first half is often flat or even slightly positive. But, like the Waratahs, things take a turn after the break. From the 50-minute mark, they tend to lose ground, and in a few games the wheels have come off completely. The individual worms show they’re not getting blown out early—but they do struggle to keep up late. Still, overall it’s a positive sign for Australia’s fastest improving side.

We've split the paddock into 26 different scoring zones, and looked at who was the most prolific scorer in each zone. Charlie Curnow showing why he earned a 2nd-straight Coleman Medal 🏅👀

Today saw another sprint, and yet another win for Jasper Philipsen and Alpecin-Deceuninck. The 323 points he has earned by Stage 11 is the most since Peter Sagan amassed 339 by the same point in 2018.

Is the Green Jersey his all the way to Paris? Or can he be caught in the points classification? See how the points race has unfolded year on year below:

Polka Dot Jersey

Stage 13 sees the race return to the mountains and will finish atop the grueling Grand Colombier.

Neilsen Powless of Education First is an unlikely wearer of the polka dots, and should still lead the King Of The Mountains at the end of the day, but the competition is wide open. If I were a betting man I wouldn't expect him to still have the jersey come Paris. See how the KOM race has unfolded year on year below:

🛣️ Flat country roads 🏁 Summit finishes 🏔 Alps 🚵 Cols & everything in between...

Or, if you are interested in comparing the profiles of the different TDF stages in 2023, you can find them below.

What stands out to you?

I've also produced it at a yearly level for every track that has been raced on since 2006. Some (like Barcelona) have 25 years of races to compare. Some (like Portugal) have very little, while others (like Imola) have big gaps between year raced. Nevertheless each one of them is interesting in its own right. It's easy to assume that times are always getting faster, but thats not the case. The myriad of rule changes, new regulations, changes in track layouts, and weather conditions year to year provide some fascinating results. It's easy to get lost trying to remember what caused any given change.

What stands out to you?

Races on the 2021 F1 Calendar

Bahrain Grand Prix

Chinese Grand Prix (Cancelled)

Emilia Romagna Grand Prix

Portuguese Grand Prix

Spanish Grand Prix

Monaco Grand Prix

Azerbaijan Grand Prix

Canadian Grand Prix (Cancelled)

French Grand Prix

Austrian Grand Prix

British Grand Prix

Hungarian Grand Prix

Belgian Grand Prix

Dutch Grand Prix

No data... Come back in a year or two

Italian Grand Prix

Russian Grand Prix

Singapore Grand Prix

Japanese Grand Prix

United States Grand Prix

Mexican Grand Prix

Brazilian Grand Prix

Australian Grand Prix

Saudi Arabian Grand Prix

No data... Come back in a year or two

Abu Dhabi Grand Prix

Turkish Grand Prix

Defunct Races

Argentine Grand Prix

Indian Grand Prix

European Grand Prix

Korean Grand Prix

Malaysian Grand Prix

Tuscan Grand Prix

Need a primer on what efficiency is? Check out our introduction to efficiency calculations

Another week, another look at the efficiency ranking for rugby around the globe. This week we have updates for Week 7 of Super Rugby Australia and Week 6 of Super Rugby Aotearoa, as well as a first (maybe slightly too early) look at Major League Rugby following their round 3 clashes. No updates for Gallagher Premiership Rugby this week as they are off for the Challenge Cup.

Super Rugby

After teasing us for weeks, it's finally 1st place across the board for the Brumbies as they overtook the Rebels to nab the top spot in the Defensive Efficiency ranks. The question is whether anyone will catch them for the rest of the season. The closest team to doing so is the Reds, who move to 2nd in Attacking Efficiency after their strong win over the Rebels. However the Reds middle of the pack 5th ranking in Defense is holding them back from making a real run at the Brumbies.

The Crusaders upset loss to the Highlanders let the Reds sneak past them, as well as lifted the Highlanders to 6th spot in Net Efficiency and moved them from last to 8th in Defensive Efficiency.

The big losers of the week are the Rebels. After being number 1 in Defensive Efficiency for the past 3 weeks, they drop to 4th after their performance against the Reds.

Major League Rugby

This is our first chance to see what the Major League Rugby efficiency rankings look like. It might be too early to really get a good sense of what the real ranking are since the season is only 3 weeks old ( or 2 for the teams who have had a bye). I usually like to wait until teams have 4 games under their belt to account for any outliers. Indeed when you look at the spread of values between the top and bottom teams it is much wider than we see in other leagues, but these will likely start to revert back towards each other as the sample improves.

What stands out to you?

Need a primer on what efficiency is? Check out our introduction to efficiency calculations

Week 6 of Super Rugby Australia and Week 5 of Super Rugby Aotearoa are in the books, so it's time to take a look at the efficiency rankings coming off this week's games. I'll also be including the ranks and playing field for other competitions going forward, including a first look at Gallagher Premiership Rugby as they break for the Challenge Cup.

Super Rugby

The Brumbies continued to roll with a 42-14 win over the Force, cementing their position atop the Net Efficiency Rankings for the 5th week in a row. The 6 try performance keeps them 1st in Attacking Efficiency, while their stingy defense continued and moves them from 4th to 2nd in the Defensive Efficiency rankings - just one spot away from the trifecta of being #1 across all measures.

In the New Zealand conference the Hurricanes were the big moves this week courtesy of Jordie Barrett's points party. Their 30-19 win over the Highlanders saw their Attacking Efficiency jump 3 spots to 4th in the league. Unfortunately the Highlanders are moving in the opposite direction, dropping 2 spots in both the Attacking and Defensive Efficiency (where they now sit dead last) albeit still ahead of the Waratahs on Net Efficiency.

Premiership Rugby

Even though it's week 15 of the Gallagher Premiership Rugby this is the first look I'm taking at their efficiency ranks. Harlequins lead the comp ranked 1st in Net Efficiency and Attacking Efficiency, and 2nd in Defensive Efficiency.

On the Defensive side of the ball the Exeter Chiefs boast the top Defensive Efficiency, however their lackluster attacking efficiency put them dangerously close to being on the wrong side of the Net Efficiency gain line.

What stands out to you?

It is presented as a density based joyplot (named for the iconic Joy Division album cover) and each year is shaded based on which team had the fastest lap of the GP. Will Mercedes 2020 dominance carry over to 2021 and put in another fastest lap effort?

Take a look below and see what stands out

What is efficiency?

Efficiency of Attack is the number of points a team scores per 100 carries. A higher number signifies a more efficient attack, since it takes you less carries to score a point.

Efficiency of Defense is the number of points a team allows per 100 opposition carries. A lower number is a more efficient defense, since it takes your opposition more carries to score a point.

Net Efficiency is the difference between Efficiency of Attack and Efficiency of Defense. A positive Net Efficiency means you scored more points than you conceded given equal possession.

The quadrant above charts efficiency of attack against efficiency of defense, with the center lines being the average of all teams.

The top right quadrant is where you want to be, since it means you are above the league average in both efficiency of attack and defense. Conversely the bottom left quadrant is not where you want to see you favourite team, as it means they are below average in both phases of the game.

Being in either of the other two quadrants is a mixed bag - you are above average in one aspect of the game but below average in the other. In this case you want to look at the diagonal Net Efficiency line. If you are above the line, you have a positive Net Efficiency, and score more points than you concede. If you are below, it's the opposite.

What does The Efficiency Playing Field tell us about Super Rugby teams?

The Brumbies lead both conferences with the number one net efficiency rank. This is driven by a huge Efficiency of Attack score of 39.8, which is 5 points clear than the number two Crusaders. This number is slightly misleading though, since their 61-10 Week 2 trouncing of the Waratahs is having an outweighed effect on this number. I'd expect this number to come back to the field as the season goes on and more games are factored in.

The Rebels lead the league in Efficiency of Defense, only letting their opponents score 15.5 points per 100 carries. Even though their Efficiency of Attack has been sub-par, the stinginess of their defense means they still have a positive Net Efficiency score of 5.9.

The Force come in number two in the efficiency of defense ranking, however unlike the Rebels they are let down by their poor efficiency of attack leading to a negative Net Efficiency score of -5.4.

At the other end of the spectrum are the Chiefs and Waratahs, who rank 9th and 10th in Net Efficiency. The Chiefs are brought down by their league worst defense, allowing 35 points the their opponents per 100 carries, however one bright spot is their efficiency of Attack is middle of the pack.

The Waratahs on the other had are woeful on both sides of the ball. Their offense is ranked dead last, and their offense is second last.

What stands out to you?